联系我们

简报订阅

观点丨黄民兴教授就以色列和伊朗冲突在《中国日报》英文版发表时事评论

2025年06月19日 19:56:35    来源:

6月18日,《ChinaDaily》发表西北大学区域国别学院黄民兴教授等专家学者的文章,标题为《Escalation of tensions risky for all》,以下为概要及文章原文。


随着冲突的延续,以色列遭受的损失不断升级,其地域狭小、人口有限、大量军火依靠进口的缺点日益暴露,而伊朗地域广阔、人口众多、军火自给自足的优点不断显现。以色列因为缺乏美军拥有的战略轰炸机和钻地弹而无法对伊朗深藏地下的核设施进行摧毁性打击,其面临的国际舆论压力持续增长。除非美国下场参加对伊打击,否则以色列的军事行动难以为继。无论这场冲突以何种方式结束,它都意味着新一轮巴以冲突开启的地区动荡发展到了顶点,中东地区格局面临重新洗牌的前景。


英文原文

Middle East powers slide into a conflict of attrition. The flare-up of conflict between the two major powers in the Middle East, Iran and Israel, has triggered continuous mutual attacks. Observations from both sides indicate that the conflict has currently entered a stage of attrition. Leveraging its advantages in air forces, meticulous preparations, and support from its ally, the United States, Tel Aviv has inflicted heavy blows on its regional rival's military installations, nuclear sites, government compounds, as well as energy infrastructure, and has eliminated military heads and nuclear scientists of Iran. In prompt retaliatory strikes, Teheran attacked similar facilities in Israel.


However, constrained by limited territory, a small population, and dependence on arms imports, Israel has been suffering increasing losses as the conflict protracts. While Iran's comparative advantages in these areas are becoming increasingly evident, Tel Aviv is incapable of destroying Iran's underground hidden nuclear sites due to a lack of US military support.


Unless the US joins the battlefield against Iran — a move Washington has so far refrained from, despite pressure from some Republicans — Israel would have difficulty maintaining its attacks on Teheran.


Therefore, the two countries continue their attacks while waging parallel psychological warfare and public opinion campaigns, each setting conditions for a potential ceasefire and showing some openness to third-party mediation. Regardless of how this conflict concludes, it marks the climax of the regional upheaval triggered by the Palestine-Israel conflict and indicates that the regional dynamics in the Middle East might undergo a profound shift.