联系我们

简报订阅

赵广成副教授就特朗普对耶路撒冷表态事件接受China Daily采访

2017年12月13日 14:41:46    来源:西北大学中东研究所

2017年12月6日,美国总统特朗普在白宫宣布,美国承认耶路撒冷为以色列首都,此事迅即在世界引起轩然大波。“China Daily”针对此事采访了西北大学中东研究所的赵广成副教授、上海国际问题研究院的李伟建研究员和中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所的殷罡研究员,采访文章标题为《特朗普在耶路撒冷一事上铤而走险(Trump's Jerusalem move perilous)》。全文内容如下:

Editor’s note: US President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that he recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and will move the US embassy there from Tel-Aviv. This has sparked a debate on what the United States will gain from a decision that leaders of many countries, including Washington’s allies in the Middle East, have warned against and could lead to protests and violence. Three experts share their views on the issue with China Daily’s Zhang Zhouxiang and Cui Shoufeng. Excerpts follow:


Focus should be on how to end conflict

During the Cold War, Palestine received much support in its struggle against Israel. That support has gradually declined after the end of Cold War, and the Israel-Palestine conflict is almost marginalized amid the so-called bigger issues in the Middle East. As a result, the Palestinian people feel helpless and yet more desperate - a perfect ground for breeding hatred and extremism.

That Hamas, which apparently advocates violence to settle the Israel-Palestine conflict, has gained immense popularity in Palestine shows the Palestinians’ level of despair. And after Jerusalem gets a new status, they will become even more desperate, and more of them could join terrorist groups in the hope of launching attacks on US targets.

Jerusalem is a holy city for Jews, Christians as well as Muslims, and none of them will give up its claim on it. In fact, official recognition of Jerusalem as either Israeli or Palestinian territory is the most sensitive issue in the Middle East peace process.

There have been rumors that Trump was supported by Jews to run for the US presidency and therefore he could take a pro-Israel stance. By declaring Jerusalem the capital of Israel, Trump could prompt people to dig deeper about the reasons behind.

Instead of focusing on Jerusalem, world leaders, including Israeli and Palestinian leaders, should make more efforts to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict through peaceful talks.

Zhao Guangcheng, an associate professor at Institute of Middle East Studies, Northwestern University

Move may turn more youths into terrorists

Trump has recognized Jerusalem as Israel's capital and will shift the US embassy there, which means he has broken with years’ US presidential policy. The US Congress passed the Jerusalem Embassy Act in 1995 to shift the American embassy to Jerusalem but gave presidents the power to delay. All US presidents since then have signed the six-month waivers to defer the relocation, and for good reason.

The widening fissures among the countries in the Middle East might have prompted Trump to believe this is the right time to recognize Jerusalem as “the seat of the Israeli government” and keep the promise he had made to his voters during the campaign  trail.

Despite their feuds, Middle East powers had kept the Palestine issue at the center of regional affairs. But geopolitical entanglements over the past few years have pushed the Israel-Palestine issue to the margins. That Saudi Arabia sought Israel’s cooperation to counter Iran might have induced Washington to assume that despite being offended by the US’ decision, the Muslim leaders may not stand together in opposition.

Israel considers Jerusalem its “undivided capital”, while the international community views East Jerusalem as occupied territory. Trump’s move to endorse Israel's "sovereign claim" over Jerusalem could leave the Muslim world and many other countries fuming and push Palestinians toward extremism, which could affect Washington.

Li Weijian, a researcher of foreign policy studies at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies

Palestine could find itself in helpless state

Many experts are worried that Trump's move could harm, if not stall, the Middle East peace process. But there could be a reason behind Trump’s announcement. As president, he has to defend US interests, and disturbing the Israel-Palestine peace process is not a way to do so.

His earlier moves, including the threat to close the Palestinian office in Washington, show Trump might want Israel and Palestine to reach a peace deal as early as possible by putting more pressure on the Palestinians. Of course, the end cannot justify the means, and Trump’s move might curb the Israel-Palestine peace process instead of propelling it. And since Jerusalem is sacred for not only Palestinians, but also all Muslims, it could evoke reactions — and possibly violence — from all parts of the world.

But this time Palestine may not get adequate support from the Muslim world, because Trump has chosen quite a critical time for his announcement. As the diplomatic conflicts between Qatar and several Arab states show, Arab countries are struggling with internal conflicts. Besides, they need the US’ support to check the influence of Iran, which now has quite a big say in Middle East affairs thanks to its leading role in the war against the Islamic State. Palestine may find itself quite a helpless position this time.

Yin Gang, a researcher on Middle East studies at Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

赵广成副教授认为,在冷战时期,巴勒斯坦在对抗以色列的过程中获得了许多支持。而随着冷战的结束,这种支持已经大为削弱,同时由于其他中东热点问题的爆发,巴以冲突已经越来越处于边缘化的境地。因此,巴勒斯坦民众越发感到绝望和无助,这无疑是产生仇恨和极端分子的温床,因此支持用暴力手段解决巴以冲突的哈马斯得到了许多巴勒斯坦民众的支持。

随着特朗普承认耶路撒冷为以色列首都,我们可以预见到巴勒斯坦民众必将更加绝望,在这种情况下将会有更多的民众加入恐怖组织用不对称的方式去对抗以色列和美国。

耶路撒冷是众所周知的犹太教、基督教和伊斯兰教圣地,因此三大宗教都不会放弃对耶路撒冷的宣称。美国对耶路撒冷作为以色列首都的官方承认无疑将这一敏感问题再次激化,特朗普的举动虽然是出于国内犹太选民的政治考量,但也将促使人们考虑该问题的深层原因。事实上,相比于耶路撒冷这一具体问题,世界各国的领导人特别是巴以双方的领导人更应该把重点放在如何通过和平谈判来解决巴以冲突。